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October 2008
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Home Sales Rise as Affordability Improves

Existing-home sales increased last month as buyers responded to improved housing affordability conditions, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – rose 5.5 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.18 million units in September from a level of 4.91 million in August. Home sales are 1.4 percent higher than the 5.11 million-unit pace in September 2007.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said more markets are seeing year-over-year gains.

“The sales turnaround which began in California several months ago is broadening now to Colorado, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, and Rhode Island,” he says. “The South was hampered by much lower home sales in Houston in the aftermath of Hurricane Ike.”

NAR President Richard F. Gaylord says low home prices and low interest rates have helped attract buyers.

“This is the first time since November 2005 that home sales have been above year-ago levels,” Gaylord says. “Credit tightened at the end of September, but the improvement demonstrates that buyers who’ve been on the sidelines want to get into the market to make a long-term investment in their future.”

According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage fell to 6.04 percent in September from 6.48 percent in August; the rate was 6.38 percent in September 2007.

Yun says there may still be market disruptions.

“The credit markets are not settled yet, although the mortgage market stabilized with the government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac,” Yun says. “Inventory remains high, and price declines are pressuring owners.”

Yun says that an additional housing stimulus would stabilize prices more quickly and help bring faster stability to Wall Street.

“Removing the repayment feature on the [$7,500] first-time buyer tax credit and permanently raising loan limits would bring more buyers into the market and further reduce inventory,” Yun says.

A Closer Look at the Numbers

  • Total housing inventory: at the end of September fell 1.6 percent to 4.27 million existing homes available for sale, which represents a 9.9-month supply at the current sales pace, down from a 10.6-month supply in August. This marks two consecutive monthly declines since inventories peaked in July.
  • National median existing-home price: $191,600 in September, for all housing types. That’s down 9 percent from a year ago when the median was $210,500.

“Compared to a fairly small share of foreclosures or short sales a year ago, distressed sales are currently 35 to 40 percent of transactions,” Yun says. “These are pulling the median price down because many are being sold at discounted prices. The current market is not being dominated by speculative investors. Rather, 80 percent of current buyers are purchasing a primary residence, which is a bit higher than historic norms.”

  • Single-family home sales: increased 6.2 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 4.62 million in September from a pace of 4.35 million in August, and are 3.8 percent above the 4.45 million-unit level a year ago. The median existing single-family home price was $190,600 in September, which is 8.6 percent below September 2007.
  • Existing condominium and co-op sales: were unchanged at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 560,000 units in September, but are 15.7 percent below the 664,000-unit pace in September 2007. The median existing condo price was $199,400 in September, down 10.2 percent from a year ago.

By Region

Here’s a breakdown across the country of existing-home in September:

  • West: sting-home sales in the West jumped 16.8 percent to an annual rate of 1.25 million in September, and are 34.4 percent higher than September 2007. Median price: $253,600, down 18.5 percent from a year ago.
  • Midwest: sales increased 4.4 percent to an annual pace of 1.19 million in September, but are 2.5 percent below a year ago. Median price: $152,500, which is 7.9 percent lower than September 2007.
  • South: sales rose 2.2 percent in September to a pace of 1.9 million but remain 7.8 percent below September 2007. Median price:$167,200, down 4.1 percent from a year ago.
  • Northeast: sales slipped 1.2 percent to an annual pace of 840,000 in September, and are 7.7 percent lower than a year ago. Median price: $246,800, down 5.4 percent from September 2007.

Source: NAR

Florida’s existing home sales increase in September 2008

ORLANDO Real Estate., Oct. 24, 2008 – For the first time in almost three years, Florida’s existing home sales rose in September, noting a 24 percent increase in activity in the year-to-year comparison; last month’s sales of existing condos statewide increased 11 percent in the year-to-year comparison, according to the latest housing data released by the Florida Association of Realtors® (FAR).

A total of 10,817 existing homes sold statewide last month, up 24 percent over the 8,725 homes sold in September 2007, according to FAR. The last time Florida Realtors reported higher statewide existing single-family home sales was for year-end 2005, FAR records found. In July of this year, six more homes sold statewide than in July 2007, but that increase was statistically insignificant.

Fourteen of Florida’s metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) reported increased sales of existing homes in September; nine MSAs also showed gains in condo sales, marking the third month in a row that a number of markets have noted higher sales activity.

“The September sales report from the Florida Association of Realtors shows a 24 percent increase in the sales of existing homes in the state; this represents the sixth month in a row that the sales figure has exceeded its 12-month moving average (average of the previous 12 months),” says Dr. Sean Snaith, economist and director of the University of Central Florida Institute for Economic Competitiveness. “This is a clear sign that the significant price declines that have occurred across the state are leading to a more rapid absorption of the housing inventory.”

Snaith noted that September 2007 was a volatile time for the housing industry. “The large percentage increase of sales this September versus September 2007 is inflated by the sharp decline in sales that took place in September 2007,” he explained. “That was the month following the initial wave of global fallout precipitated by the subprime mortgage meltdown that roiled markets in August 2007.”

Florida’s median sales price for existing homes last month was $175,100; a year ago, it was $224,700 for a 22 percent decrease. But, looking back to September 2003, the statewide median sales price for single-family homes was $158,800 – an increase of 10.3 percent over the five-year-period, according to FAR records. The median is the midpoint; half the homes sold for more, half for less.

The national median sales price for existing single-family homes in August 2008 was $201,900, down 9.7 percent from a year earlier, according to the National Association of Realtors® (NAR). In California, the statewide median resales price was $350,140 in August; in Massachusetts, it was $325,000; in Maryland, it was $295,283; and in New York, it was $225,000.

The latest housing outlook from NAR points out the importance of available credit to the mortgage market. “Home sales will be constrained without a freer flow of credit into the mortgage market,” says NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “The faster that happens, the sooner we’ll see a broad stabilization in home prices that in turn will help the economy recover.”

In Florida’s year-to-year comparison for condos, 2,878 units sold statewide compared to 2,595 sold in September 2007 for an 11 percent increase. The statewide existing condo median sales price last month was $153,800; in September 2007 it was $197,000 for a 22 percent decrease. In the latest data available at press time, NAR reported the national median existing condo price was $212,600 in August 2008.

Last month, interest rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.04 percent, down from the average rate of 6.38 percent in September 2007, according to Freddie Mac. FAR’s sales figures reflect closings, which typically occur 30 to 90 days after sales contracts are written.

Among the state’s large to medium-size markets, the Daytona Beach MSA reported a total of 536 homes sold in September compared to 478 homes a year ago for a 12 percent increase. The existing home median sales price was $160,000; a year ago, it was $193,200 for a 17 percent decrease. In the year-to-year comparison for the existing condo market, a total of 74 units sold in the MSA last month, up 1 percent compared to 73 condos sold the previous September. The market’s existing condo median price was $237,500; a year ago, it was $277,100 for a 14 percent decrease.

© 2008 FLORIDA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS